Conservatives 6.7% Swing Since 1995 In Key Marginals
A poll carried out for the Times/Populous in 100 Labour held key marginal seats has the Conservatives on 38% and Labour on 38%, this is a swing to the Conservatives of 6.7% since 1995 and makes the likelihood of a hung parliament less probable.
David Cameron still continues to have higher approval ratings than Gordon Brown on 8 out of 10 key issues.
The poll shows that the switch of voters from Labour to the Tories is about 1.5 to 2 points higher in the battleground seats than nationally. That might be worth an extra 20 MPs to the Conservatives, smaller than many in the party would hope after the big spending on these targets. It might be enough only to take the Tories to the threshold of the 326 seats they need for a bare overall majority in the Commons. The election is weeks away, almost certainly on May 6.
Populus repeated a question that proved revealing in the 2008 US presidential campaign, on whether change or experience was needed most. In the US, the margin for change over experience was about 2 to 1, highlighting Barack Obama’s edge over John McCain. In Britain, 56 per cent favour change and 40 per cent experience.