Met Office Predicts Mild Spring Weather
It has not been a good year for the Met Office, apart from the Climategate fallout there was the inconvenient truth of the barbecue summer of 2009 and the mild winter of 2009/10.
Last week the Met Office announed that it was stopping publishing seasonal forecasts, the mild winter forecast sounded the death knell for seasonal forecasts, it is doubtful that the Met Office could have borne the ridicule of another wildly wrong forecast.
A spokesman for the Met Office admitted that with the current state of climate science it is too difficult to predict the seasons in advance:
Although we can identify general patterns of weather, the science does not exist to allow an exact forecast beyond five days, or to absolutely promise a certain type of weather.
“As a result, ‘seasonal forecasts’ cannot be as precise as our short-term forecast,”
So if seasonal forecasts cannot be precise how were we supposed to believe their predictions for 2050, when by their own admission they cant get Q1 of 2010 correct?
Not in any way put off by the mild winter the Met Office are now predicting a mild Spring:
Helen Chivers, a Met Office spokesman, said the temperatures forecast for the coming days would be slightly above average for this time of year, with a good deal of dry weather across the country next week.
“The start of spring is known for being the time of year that is nearly impossible to define,” she said.
Predictions and forecasts, both amount to roughly the same thing, perhaps a forecast is a just an average of a number of predictions on a spreadsheet, whatever the semantics if the Met Office are predicting a mild spring, then gales and floods are likely on the way.