Met Office Predicts Mild Spring Weather

It has not been a good year for the Met Office, apart from the Climategate fallout there was the inconvenient truth of the barbecue summer of 2009 and the mild winter of 2009/10.

Last week the Met Office announed that it was stopping publishing seasonal forecasts, the mild winter forecast sounded the death knell for seasonal forecasts, it is doubtful that the Met Office could have borne the ridicule of another wildly wrong forecast.

A spokesman for the Met Office admitted that with the current state of climate science it is too difficult to predict the seasons in advance:

Although we can identify general patterns of weather, the science does not exist to allow an exact forecast beyond five days, or to absolutely promise a certain type of weather.

“As a result, ‘seasonal forecasts’ cannot be as precise as our short-term forecast,”

So if seasonal forecasts cannot be precise how were we supposed to believe their predictions for 2050, when by their own admission they cant get Q1 of 2010 correct?

Not in any way put off by the mild winter the Met Office are now predicting a mild Spring:

Helen Chivers, a Met Office spokesman, said the temperatures forecast for the coming days would be slightly above average for this time of year, with a good deal of dry weather across the country next week.

“The start of spring is known for being the time of year that is nearly impossible to define,” she said.

Predictions and forecasts, both amount to roughly the same thing, perhaps a forecast is a just an average of a number of predictions on a spreadsheet, whatever the semantics if the Met Office are predicting a mild spring, then gales and floods are likely on the way.

About Tory Aardvark

Climate Realist, Conservative and proud NRA member. I don't buy into the Man Made Global Warming Scam, science is never settled. @ToryAardvark on Twitter ToryAardvark on Facebook

Posted on March 13, 2010, in Climategate and tagged . Bookmark the permalink. 5 Comments.

  1. I found this such a laugh! Years ago in the early years of
    television, it was a joke that the weather BBC forecasters
    rarely got it right. Even then. The reason being in a country the size of Scotland, Wales and England, you are surrounded by ocean or seas. So many micro-climates there, it is near impossible to predict weather too accurately. Bournemouth SW England, the Scilly Isles, tend to be warmer than say Liverpool and definitely Scotland. And Hebrides land of the midnight sun? Rain shadows,
    urban developments, all create their own micro-climates.

    Yet – a mild spring, that should be nice. One of my favorite times of the year… don’t hold your breath. It can snow at
    Easter too! Those in their late fifties and sixties, remember
    how we looked forward to our summer holidays. Only to find the weather got wonderful (Indian summer?) only when we returned to school in early September?

    As we say in Australia “You’ll be right” an ice age is not
    coming in your life time…. nor is Mediterranean type weather patterns… more rain. Green fields, etc. More fresh food and fat beef etc.

  2. Met office and BBC never forecast the weather all they do is tell you what happened yesterday and earlier today and then go on to add a tiny bit at the end to say what they have observed happening 100 miles down wind and tell you what’s coming as if they have scientifically forecast it. Its just the same as me looking across the fields and observing its raining heavily and coming towards me so I then forecast what’s going to happen in 5 minutes time. I too should be paid a huge wedge of tax payers dosh to predict I’m going to get soaked if I run for the bus in a cloudburst.

    • Lorenzo: Strange usually they do predict weather likely to happen? Your Bureau of Meteorology or Met Office, has a website too. I check on it sometimes to see what weather my rellies are experiencing in UK? And they do predict days in advance. Must check it out again.

      In Australia, we have several weather sites. The BOM that has radar and satellite images, that are also animated. Then each State and each town or city in Australia. daily reports. We also have country energy, the electricity supplier, who has a storm tracker. Where lightening his hitting the ground, and storms heading towards us etc. And warnings of cyclones, flooding and bad storms are on the BOM site too.

      When I lived in UK (London & Potters Bar) from 1942 to 1965, the main complaint was the rain. People blamed it
      on nuclear bomb testing and the war WWII? When I lived
      in Lincolnshire we had a very mild summer one year with water restrictions. Moved to Sydney, and we had water
      restrictions there too. So if Aust follows suit, we are in for
      a very cold winter this year (for us anyway). Yet you never grew grapes in England then, only in greenhouses. Like during the Medieaval warm period.

      Try it or just google it. Don’t say you Poms
      don’t have the same IT capacity? I doubt it.

      BOM (Aust) do have long forecasts also, but they give rain maps upto 4 days in advance, however, doesn’t mean it will rain in your town, just in your area. As I said before, you can have different weather a mere 1 kg away, that won’t effect everyone at one time?

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