Opinion Polls Do They Mean Anything Real At The Moment
Britain seems to have gone opinion poll made since the televised Leaders Debate last Thursday. Every day a new poll comes out claiming to show this or that is going to happen, the MSM is buzzing with a “hung parliament” message, but do these opinion polls actually predict with any degree of accuracy the actual outcome on May 6th?
When the Leaders Debates were announced many political commentators predicted that the party with the most to gain was the Lib Dems as they were on the stage with the big boys and as a result would get a bounce from the first Leaders Debate.
The actual broadcast was watched by a maximum of 9 million viewers at the start and as the program progressed so the viewing figures declined; which makes the sudden bounce for Nick Clegg in the polls all the more surprising as less than 25% of those eligible to vote actually watched the program.
The situation becomes even more confusing with a new poll in the Sun today which puts the Lib Dems on 32%, Conservatives on 31% and Labour on 26%, especially when only 50% of respondents actually know what Nick Clegg stands for.
When asked about Lib Dem policies respondents were against 60% of Lib Dem policies:
Immigration 49% oppose against 35% for
Prison 50% oppose 33% support 33%
Higher Education oppose 48% support 31%
Energy oppose 41% support 32%
Europe oppose 65% support 18%
Euro oppose 65% support 21%
Removing Trident oppose 37% support 37%
Tax oppose 20% support 66%
Public Sector Pay oppose 24% support 57%
Electoral System oppose 16% support 54%
Full details of the poll here
The next Leaders Debate on Thursday will be interesting as Clegg will have to provide a lot of substance about his manifesto, a manifesto which he probably never thought would come under this level of scrunity. The Debate will be a lot more pressured for Clegg as big things will be expected of him, Brown will no longer be harping on about the common ground between Labour and the Lib Dems and Cameron will be out for blood.
A good evening for political afficiandos, journalists and political bloggers, will it engange the public anymore than the first Debate?
Doubtful, Aardvark suspects that the viewing figures will be lower than last Thursday and that the opinion polls will show the slowing of the Lib Dem bounce as support crystalises around the Conservatives and Labour.