The Arctic Could Be Ice Free By 2012, Er No, 2020, Er No, 2058 That’s Right

Time to photoshop some polar bears on to melting ice for another new scary Arctic fear meme.

Time to photoshop some polar bears on to melting ice for another new scary Arctic fear meme.

Here we go again, a new Armageddon prediction from warming alarmist central about the Arctic, this time our children won’t know what Arctic ice was in 2058, or will they?

And what does an ice free Arctic really mean anyway?

More on that later, for now back to warming alarmist failed predictions.

Back in 2007 Jay Zwally, a NASA Climate Scientist predicted the Arctic would be ice free in the Summer of 2012, the summer of 2012 came and the Arctic stubbornly refused to lose all it’s ice. This is despite increasing levels of atmospheric CO2, which the Greens have been telling us for years will cause planetary meltdown.

The Greens and warming alarmists have an unenviable record of never being right with their predictions, to date not one Green prediction of doom and gloom has come to pass.

As each prediction fails so the date for the next Armageddon is pushed back further into the future, Green fingers are crossed that this time they will be correct and millions of people will die, and they will have been vindicated.

Slippage in Armageddon events is a tactic beloved of the Greens, and most especially the railway engineer Rajendra Pachuari, head of the UN IPCC, for whom slippage is an art form:

We have just a small window of opportunity and it is closing rather rapidly. There is not a moment to lose.

January 2005

If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.

November 2007

I am very worried that we are running out of time.

January 2008

It is very important to reach an [international emissions] agreement by 2009.

April 2008

If we allow things to continue unchanged and we don’t take action today, it would destabilize human society…I hope that in the next year and a half…that we show a certain resolve and aspiration to do things that are required for the benefit of the human race.

August 2008

The least cost part of effective emissions reduction would really require us to see that global emissions peak no later than 2015. And that’s just four years away…if we have to meet that requirement of a least cost trajectory of emissions stabilisation then we really need to move rapidly and every country in the world has to do that.

May 2011

If you Google “arctic could be ice free in“, you will be rewarded with dates as early as 2013 and then all the way to 2058 and beyond, what is interesting though, is just how many of these predictions date from this year.

While 2012 failed to deliver the Green nirvana of an ice free Arctic, the warming alarmist propaganda machine has been running flat out pushing an easily disproved lie about the record summer melt of August 2012. There was no record Arctic ice melt last August, every single person and organisation involved in the Green boondoggle knows this, the cause was an cyclone which raged for days and broke up the ice, the source for this information, the warming alarmists at NASA.

The scientific case for Anthropogenic Global Warming has become so weak that the warmists now have to cherry pick the data from their own junk science outlets to try and keep the scam alive, as this latest attempted scare illustrates once again:

People have been warning about an ice-free Arctic ocean for years. But Jiping Liu, an atmospheric scientist at the State University of New York in Albany in the US and colleagues have gone one better.

They predict that the Arctic Ocean will be effectively free of ice for the first time in the month of September between 2054 and 2058.

Once again, the prediction depends on climate models, and inevitably on the decisions governments take to control greenhouse gas emissions in the next decade.

But the fact that a team of scientists can spread their bets over a span of four specific years is an indicator of how fast and how inexorable the Arctic melting has become.

The polar icecap has been dwindling in area and losing its thickness for decades: the observations by satellite have been confirmed by submarine measurements and icebreaker journeys. An icecap that was, historically, impassable even in summer has for years given way each autumn to ever greater stretches of open water.

From 1979 to 2001, the ice cap dwindled by more than 6% per decade, and in 2001 began melting twice as fast, The ice melt broke all previous records in 2007, and in 2012 did it again, reaching an all-time low.

The Greens like to use ambiguous phrases like “sustainable development” which means anything but the obvious interpretation you are supposed to fall for, another is “ice free Arctic” which is supposed to conjure up a picture of zero sea ice in the Arctic for weeks on end, when in fact ice free does not mean anything of the sort:

Ice Free, the northern polar region of the planet with zero ice for 2 months is what you are a supposed to think, but as Professor Judith Curry points out “ice free” does not mean ice free:

‘Ice free’ is put in quotes, because ‘ice free’ as commonly used doesn’t mean free of ice, as in zero ice. The usual definition of ‘ice free’ Arctic is ice extent below 1 M sq km (current minimum extent is around 3.5 M sq km). This definition is used because it is very difficult to melt the thick ice around the Canadian Archipelago. And the issue of ‘ice free’ in the 21st century is pretty much a non issue if your require this thick ice to disappear.

The prediction can be safely ignored, it is based on the warmist computer models which are so inaccurate that they are nothing more than a bad and very expensive joke, it ignores observed empirical evidence from NASA about a cyclone breaking up Arctic ice and is nothing more than another fear meme to keep a dying scam alive.

About Tory Aardvark

Climate Realist, Conservative and proud NRA member. I don't buy into the Man Made Global Warming Scam, science is never settled. http://toryaardvark.com @ToryAardvark on Twitter ToryAardvark on Facebook

Posted on July 22, 2013, in Anthropogenic Global Warming, Church Of Climatology, Climate Change, Global Warming, Green Environmental Holocaust, Green Lies, Junk Science, ManBearPig, Oh FFS. Bookmark the permalink. 9 Comments.

  1. Furor Teutonicus

    I LOVE to see people on the edge of their seats waitng for that “Schadenfreud” moment.

    HOW dissapointing for them.

    Especially when their lack of Schadenfreud only strengthens mine. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  2. – A few months back I wrote an essay about “Headlines bigger than the real story” re: Ice-Free & CO2 crossing the 400ppm. Both of which don’t mean what people think they mean. It’s partially due to a strange definition : “ice free” = when the Arctic sea-ice extent in September is below 1 million sq km
    – It seems it has low years then recovers, but pessimists never predicted any recoveries hence their way off forecasts

    – A SHORT list of Ice Free Forecasts fromSteve Goddard’s page.. a few coming up this year. (- WattsUpWithThat.com has a longer list )
    2000 New Scientist in 1960
    2000 AP in 1972
    2008 Olav Orheim, the head of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat in 2008 ! yes
    2010-2015 Arcticnet Canada in 2007
    2012 NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally
    2012 Seth Borenstein in Washington Associated Press &N Geographic December 12, 2007
    2013 Jonathan Amos Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco in 2007
    2013-2019 Richard Black BBC News 2011 WOLF WOLF says BBC
    2013 niagarafallsreview.ca in 2011 they removed it now
    2014-2016 Al Gore December 15, 2009
    2015 Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Report in 2009
    2020 UK Met office old forecast, updated to 2060-80 their 2009 forecast
    2030 Joe Rommm quoting NSIDC Serreze in 2011
    * the WattsUp list is much longer
    – note the weasel words like “UPTO” & “COULD” to cover any eventuality that are used in the body but often omıtted from the headlines
    – Peter Walsh has a good list of other failed predictions as 7th comment on this Bishop-Hill page
    – It would seem much easier to compile a list of the predictions that CAGW supporters have correctly made ..There is nothing wrong with giving them credit when they are right.

  3. – Made a Failed prediction ? Hey don’t worrry about it. The BBC won’t be hard. it will big up your next one instead.. in what GWPF call Salami Climatology

  4. fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me, fool me 3 times shame on the media.

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